Effects of Socioeconomic Development and Government-Sensitive Action on State-by-State TFR Projections in India: Forecasts for 2047
Navin Upadhyay
Abstract

In this paper, using regression analysis and by considering socioeconomic determinants as well as government interference scenario, state-wise future TFR of India up to the year 2047 has been projected. Predictive models were developed using secondary data from TFR and major determinants like female education, urbanization, poverty, age at marriage, and contraceptive use. Results suggest that, with continued socioeconomic advancement and sound government policies, the majority of states might be able to reach belowreplacement fertility by 2047; yet a selected number of high-fertility states would remain relatively higher. The results inform policy for sustainable population growth as part of India›s 2047 vision
Key words: Total Fertility Rate (TFR); Fertility forecasting; Regression analysis; State-wise projections; Socio-economic determinants; Government sensitive action; Scenario analysis; NFHS-5;
Demographic transition; India; 2047 vision; Population planning.

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