Effects of Socioeconomic Development and
Government-Sensitive Action on State-by-State TFR
Projections in India: Forecasts for 2047
Navin Upadhyay
Abstract
In this paper, using regression analysis and by
considering socioeconomic determinants as well as
government interference scenario, state-wise future TFR
of India up to the year 2047 has been projected.
Predictive models were developed using secondary data
from TFR and major determinants like female education,
urbanization, poverty, age at marriage, and
contraceptive use. Results suggest that, with continued
socioeconomic advancement and sound government
policies, the majority of states might be able to reach
belowreplacement fertility by 2047; yet a selected
number of high-fertility states would remain relatively
higher. The results inform policy for sustainable
population growth as part of India›s 2047 vision
Key words: Total Fertility Rate (TFR); Fertility
forecasting; Regression analysis; State-wise
projections; Socio-economic determinants; Government
sensitive action; Scenario analysis; NFHS-5;
Demographic transition; India; 2047 vision; Population
planning.
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